In a landscape of unprecedented international uncertainty, the business world is facing a geopolitical chessboard that defies every known rule. At Thinking Heads, we recently had the opportunity to host an exclusive session with Josep Borrell, former High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, alongside prominent executives from various sectors to analyze the forces reshaping our environment.

The diagnosis was clear: in this new world order defined by coercion, technological dependency, and geopolitical fragmentation, European strategic autonomy remains a top priority for any organization operating within this new paradigm.

This article outlines the most critical takeaways from that dialogue–conclusions with direct implications for the agendas of those managing communication, institutional relations, and corporate affairs.

The Decline of Traditional Values and the Rise of the “Dark Enlightenment”

The new world order is undergoing a profound shift away from the values established since the French Revolution, such as democracy, human rights, and judicial independence. Borrell warns of the rise of the “Dark Enlightenment“, an ideological movement championed by American tech magnates like Peter Thiel, who view the liberal democratic order as obsolete.

This doctrinal framework—discussed in niche intellectual circles—advocates for a world organized around centralized leadership with absolute power, operating under the logic and lens of a private corporation.

In this context, Borrell pointed to Trumpism as a clear manifestation of this trend. The Trump phenomenon is not a random glitch in the American democratic system; it is the most visible sign of an organized ideological current with a long-term agenda. Understanding it as such completely changes how an organization must plan its engagement with the geopolitical environment.

Europe’s Strategic Dependency: Deeper Than We Think

The European Union was not conceived to fight or compete in a world of geopolitical confrontation. It is fundamentally a project of peace and cooperation, not an entity designed for conflict.

In the face of this global juncture, the quest for European strategic autonomy—a major stated goal of EU foreign policy in recent years—hits a structural wall that Borrell breaks down with precision:

• Technology and Digital Infrastructure: 100% of the relevant cloud computing for European companies and institutions is in the hands of U.S. providers. If the U.S. decided to cut off access, Europe would be, in Borrell’s words, “completely left out to dry”.
• Connectivity and the Payments Ecosystem: Most subsea fiber optic cables are American-owned or controlled. International payment clearing systems operate under U.S. jurisdiction, turning U.S. sanctions into global instruments that Europe cannot replicate.
• Defense, Security, and Armament: Approximately 60% of European military equipment is imported from the U.S.. A unilateral decision to suspend supplies would leave European armies without basic operational capacity within months. Read more in our blog post: Europe’s Defense in a New Security Era.
• Institutional Gridlock: The unanimity rule in the European Council allows countries with agendas aligned with Russia or China—noting that 40% of Chinese investment in Europe is concentrated in Hungary—to effectively act as “veto players” against any collective response.
• Lack of Fiscal Capacity: Europe is not a fiscal power; it does not collect its own taxes and cannot increase spending autonomously. Everything it distributes must first be contributed by Member States. Read more in our blog post: Europe and Banking in Playtime.

Economic Disruptors in Europe: Tariffs, AI, the Climate Agenda, and Deregulation

The new world order translates directly into four economic factors impacting corporate strategy:

• An Unpredictable Tariff War: Tariff volatility is no longer a manageable variable. The American tariff system now operates through the logic of political coercion rather than trade policy: it changes overnight, is declared illegal by U.S. courts, and is then reinstated by executive decree. Borrell puts it bluntly: “No one has any visibility anymore on the transfer price of a product to the American economy”.
• A Potential AI Bubble: Borrell diagnoses AI as both a real structural shift—one billion generative AI users in just a few years, growing ten times faster than previous tech revolutions—and a massive accumulation of speculative capital without matching real-world returns. “Nvidia’s value is higher than India’s GDP. There is no rate of return that justifies those valuations”.
• Backtracking on the Climate Agenda: The American abandonment of the climate agenda has implications far beyond the environment. With widespread skepticism in the U.S.—responsible for 25% of global emissions—the European regulatory argument loses its leverage over the rest of the world. As Europe represents only 6% of global emissions, the effort to reduce that percentage becomes politically unsustainable if the world’s largest historical emitter has left the framework. The European regulatory pendulum has already begun to swing: a moratorium on ending internal combustion engines, the practical suspension of the deforestation directive, and “omnibus” laws dismantling regulations passed just two years ago.
• Deregulation and Competitiveness: Following years of regulatory expansion, Brussels is now pushing for simplification. This is what Borrell calls the “regulatory see-saw”. In response to corporate complaints regarding regulatory overreach, we are seeing a strong trend toward deregulation to regain competitiveness. Consequently, the European Parliament is fast-tracking “omnibus” laws to repeal and reverse excess corporate mandates.

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Conclusions: Where is Europe Headed?

In this new world order, the ideological, technological, and economic forces that have built this new paradigm still have a long road ahead. Organizations that incorporate this reading into their strategy will have a perceptual advantage over those still waiting for a “return to normalcy” that is unlikely to arrive.

Europe must prepare to operate in a world dominated by unpredictable leadership. In this context, it must urgently decide if it is willing to pay the price for its own sovereignty. For businesses, this means redefining the public affairs agenda: anticipating geopolitical risks, diversifying critical dependencies, participating in the debate on European competitiveness, and understanding that corporate strategy can no longer be decoupled from the international context.

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